Publications

January 26, 2017
Russia's overall crude production in 2017 will continue growing to new
post-Soviet records despite Moscow's pledge to cut the country's output in the
first half of the year as part of a deal with OPEC, according to independent
Vygon Consulting.
The consultancy, which has been recently providing more optimistic
forecasts than the country's energy ministry, estimated Russia's crude output
evidence of a 1.5 million b/d cut in place at the time, while Novak put the
figure higher at 1.7 million b/d.

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January 9, 2017

Russia's crude refining sector is expected to see further pressure in the coming year with oil export duty changes coming into force in January in a move likely to extend the recent downward trend in the country's refining throughput and free more barrels for exports.

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December 23, 2016

Grigory Vygon, Managing Director of VYGON Consulting, on the impact of low oil prices on Russian oil and gas producers and their prospects on the European market.

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July 1, 2016

The European market makes up for about two-thirds of Gazprom’s gas turnover. Some 159 billion cubic meters (bcm) were delivered in 2015 an 8% growth compared to 2014. Sales of this quantity generate around half of Gazprom’s revenues coming from hydrocarbons industry.

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May 12, 2016

A new study shows that the amount of fuel sold at the pump was down by 1.3 percent in 2015, with the decrease predicted to be even greater in 2016-2017 due to the economic crisis.

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February 24, 2016

Russia’s refineries are staring into the abyss of another dark year, with low oil prices and taxes whittling down margins to a level even lower than last year’s. Large, modernized operations will manage to eke out a profit, or at least break even, thanks to value-added products, while the plethora of heavy fuel oil-reliant teapots will come under greater economic strain, with some possibly folding.

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December 1, 2015

In terms of economics, analysts say the project could work given Afipsk’s export logistics and the current tax maneuver, which foresees a steady reduction in duties for exported lighter oil products. “The refinery has an advantageous geographic location, and thanks to the current export duties it enjoys a good margin,” said Sergei Yezhov, chief economist at Vygon Consulting in Moscow. “They can build the terminal and recoup the investments while the [export] subsidies are in place,” he added, though this would require a firm belief that the current tax regime will not undergo drastic changes. The past, however, has shown that taxes change often and dramatically in Russia.

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November 20, 2015

Today, Russia's largest gas company faces a number of problems. “Internal demand for Gazprom gas is rapidly falling. Sales on the domestic market have plummeted by 30 percent: from 307 bcm in 2005 to 217 bcm last year. What tights the situation more is the two main competitors, conducting aggressive market expansion – the largest private company Novatek – the second-largest player at the market, and the state company Rosneft"

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September 15, 2015

Moscow and Brussels have switched their gas business from the model of "interpenetration and interdependence" to the model of "pure diversification".

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July 30, 2015

The key argument behind the proposals, an analyst from Moscow-based VYGON Consulting Maria Belova said, is probably that the Russian gas industry has drastically changed over the past 20 years and the key rules should be changed accordingly. Independent gas producers and oil companies have increased their share on the Russian gas market, with Rosneft and private gas producer Novatek having become a force to be reckoned with.

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July 30, 2015

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has said the tax changes that went into effect at the start of the year have brought positive results, dashing hopes that the government might consider amendments to provide relief for refiners' increasingly tight, perhaps even negative, margins. Chief economist at VYGON Consulting Sergei Yezhov commented theme for NEFTE Compass (July 30 2015).

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